The national teams of Bulgaria and Italy will play in the opening match of Group B from the World Cup qualifier. The match will be held at Vasil Levski Stadium in Sofia. Both teams are in very different positions as the guests from Italy managed to reach the final of the European Championship, while the hosts from Bulgaria are in a serious crisis with almost no quality enough players to compete for the first two places in the group.

At first sight this determines the most logical assumption about this game, namely a victory for Italy. However, the odds are too low for such betting prediction. A victory for the guests is estimated at only 1.67 from the betting houses, which is really small for a first match as a guest in the qualifiers.

Four years ago, the two teams met each other in similar circumstances, as Italy again performed well in the European Championship, while Bulgaria was again in crisis. The first meeting was in Sofia and both teams made a pretty dull draw – 0:0. In the next match Italy won rather easily with 2-0 and went through without problems for the World Cup championship.

Is it possible to have a repetition of the same situation with today’s match? Personally, I see this as the more plausible variant. When we have a first match of the group in which Italy is a guest, this certainly means that they will do everything possible not to lose the game. We know that when Italy decides not to lose a match then the team rarely allows something to their opponent. Furthermore, Bulgaria is with so serious problems in attack, that it is not very clear whether they will be able to have a shoot against Buffon, let alone to reach the net.

So, the only obstacle that stands in front of my betting prediction for a draw in this match is the class of the Italian offensive players. Will they be able to break the defence of the Bulgarians in this match? The chances of this happening are certainly not small, but they in no way correspond to the odds of 3.5, which betting houses offer for a draw.

That’s why I’ll wager a small sum on this match. I will not risk much, because the outcome is uncertain, but with less money I’ll bet for a draw.

PS. On the video below you will see highlights of the last match between these too from 2008th finished with goaless draw